Lebanon: A Country in Crisis (Also Me)

On the 4th of August, 2020, a colossal explosion shook the city of Beirut, generating seismic waves registering a magnitude of 3.3 according to the United States Geological Survey. This devastating event was triggered by the unsafe storage of 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate at a warehouse in the Port of Beirut for an alarming six-year period. The aftermath was grim, resulting in extensive building damage, around 5,000 injuries, and a tragic loss of at least 200 lives. The calamity also rendered an estimated 300,000 people homeless, leaving a staggering property damage estimate of US$15 billion.

Regrettably, the Beirut blast was not an isolated occurrence, but rather a symptom of a mounting crisis that has enveloped Lebanon since 2019. The nation has been grappling with a series of interconnected crises that have wrought havoc upon its economy, society, and infrastructure. These crises encompass:

Economic and Financial Crisis: This has precipitated the collapse of the banking system, a sovereign debt default, hyperinflation, and a drastic GDP contraction. Lebanon’s GDP plummeted from $55 billion in 2018 to $20.5 billion in 2021, constituting a harrowing 63% decline. The Lebanese pound has endured a staggering 95% depreciation since 2019, plummeting to an exchange rate of 15,000 pounds per US dollar in the black market. With more than half of the population residing below the poverty line, and unemployment nearing 30%, the gravity of the situation is evident.

COVID-19 Pandemic: This has overwhelmed an already strained health system, exacerbating the pressure on public services. As of June 2023, Lebanon has reported over 600,000 cases and 8,000 COVID-19-related deaths. Unfortunately, the vaccination campaign has been plagued by allegations of corruption and mismanagement. The lockdown measures further exacerbated economic strain and heightened social discontent.

Port of Beirut Explosion: This devastating event obliterated a crucial piece of infrastructure vital for the importation of essential goods8. Additionally, the blast wreaked havoc on the adjacent grain silos, which held approximately 85% of the country’s grain supply. Tragically, in July and August 2022, a portion of the silos collapsed following an extensive fire that had raged on for weeks, compounding the crisis.

Political and Institutional Paralysis: The Lebanese government's resignation on August 10, 2020, in the wake of widespread protests over its failure to prevent the disaster, marked the beginning of a political deadlock and sectarian divisions. The nation has been without a president since May 2022, when Michel Aoun’s term concluded without a successor being elected by parliament.

Looking ahead, Lebanon's prospects appear grim unless swift and decisive reforms are implemented to address the underlying causes of the crisis and reinstate stability and confidence. The World Bank has issued a stark warning of a potential "social implosion" should no action be taken promptly. Essential steps for recovery include:

Agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF): A vital step to secure external financial assistance and restructure public debt.

Fiscal Consolidation Measures: To mitigate the budget deficit and rein in public spending. Electricity Sector Reform: Enhancing efficiency and reducing subsidies within the sector.

Governance and Transparency Strengthening: To combat corruption and bolster accountability.

Comprehensive Reconstruction Plan: For Beirut and other affected regions.

Resumption of Political Dialogue: Vital for the formation of a credible and inclusive government.

Lebanon finds itself at a pivotal juncture, with its very existence as a nation on the line. The international community must stand in support of Lebanon's endeavors to surmount this crisis, rebuild its economy, and restore its society. The people of Lebanon deserve a brighter future for themselves and generations to come.

Peace Out